could be pad wear. when the pads wear thin on my hayes mechanicals and i dial them in to compensate (including readjusting the cable), the caliper will stick closed and i lose all stopping power (and my lever will jam all the way to the bar). i think it’s designed to indicate pad replacement.
Diagnosis - stretched cable as was mentioned. I guess it creeped up on me a bit and just needed some basic tweaking to bring it back where it should be. Put 12 K on it with no issues afterwards.